Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.519966 1.724498 1.942622 2.192139 2.469239 2.767095 3.111045
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.291456 1.579644 1.906965 2.304641 2.773011 3.305321 3.954208
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.085767 1.426810 1.837911 2.366126 3.022567 3.806972 4.810181
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.961714 1.353466 1.853049 2.529328 3.412241 4.516212 5.989973
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.793084 1.198151 1.745387 2.526200 3.596782 4.996284 6.943807
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.669480 1.084331 1.677106 2.566617 3.843980 5.584433 8.100883
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.558487 0.970283 1.592536 2.573714 4.047345 6.136486 9.268590
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.490944 0.911106 1.579944 2.683678 4.410162 6.946355 10.872970
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.427948 0.848289 1.552781 2.768156 4.745276 7.749841 12.545201
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.367491 0.778647 1.504222 2.812147 5.022866 8.494381 14.198806
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.318000 0.719453 1.464411 2.865200 5.320669 9.297380 16.012164
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.262057 0.636095 1.368210 2.807149 5.426444 9.804956 17.405774
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.210767 0.552709 1.261924 2.723547 5.492511 10.277382 18.826108
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.178757 0.503884 1.215293 2.746188 5.752562 11.103702 20.910644
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.148443 0.451228 1.151385 2.725897 5.931990 11.809679 22.856766
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.131978 0.428891 1.149474 2.832792 6.368304 13.014293 25.773567
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.107314 0.377585 1.071876 2.767082 6.456631 13.592973 27.627075
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.090097 0.341906 1.024254 2.760033 6.663355 14.411752 29.984164
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.074594 0.306173 0.968981 2.726459 6.809988 15.127803 32.206808
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.066120 0.290297 0.962386 2.807550 7.212893 16.378969 35.533302
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.057972 0.272750 0.947706 2.866622 7.573694 17.575638 38.841186
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.049833 0.252176 0.920008 2.888241 7.851522 18.625159 41.934531
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.043221 0.234937 0.898510 2.922905 8.163763 19.771505 45.300899